Gemports Ruby Transaction Index (GTI) Q3 2025

GEMPORTS Press Release, November 1, 2025, Shanwei (Guangdong, China): In Q3 2025, the market experienced a shortage in high-quality rubies* across most segments, with the Gemports Ruby Transaction Index (GTI) recording both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline. The overall ruby GTI decline was mainly driven by a reduced trading share of large-carat rubies (3 carats and above) and an increased share of smaller-carat rubies (below 3 carats) in total transactions. Despite overall ruby GTI weakness, structural trends are deepening—driven by scarcity, prices for investment-grade (i.e. high-quality) rubies remain firm, further highlighting their long-term value as a "hard asset."

*High-quality rubies are defined as natural, unheated rubies of 1 carat or more, with vivid red or intense red color, with eye-clean clarity and very good cut quality.

Ruby Investment Outlook

High-Quality Ruby Market Navigates a Rare Supply Squeeze in Q3 2025

The market for high-quality ruby, a classic "hard asset" in the investment sphere, demonstrated a classic supply-side reaction in Q3 2025. While investor appetite remains robust—driven by diversification trends and strong demand from high-net-worth collectors—the core challenge is a severe constriction of high-quality rough rubies, leading to a bifurcated market performance.

High-Quality Scarcity Blip

The third quarter was defined by an acute shortage of high-quality rubies across virtually all carat weights. The shortage sign has trace from Q1 2025. But in Q3 it has shown even more decline in the high-quality supply. This shortage is particularly pronounced for:

• Investment-Grade Demand Zone (3 Carats and Up): Rubies of 3 carats and larger, possessing the trifecta of fine color (often "Pigeon Blood"), eye-clean clarity, and a very good cut, have become exceptionally rare. This size category is the sweet spot for serious collectors and wealth preservation, and its dwindling availability signals a structural supply issue, not a dip in demand.

• Larger Carat Premium (5 Carats and Up): The extreme rarity of high-quality rubies 5 carats and above has directly translated into price appreciation. We observed price increases in this ultra-rare segment ranging from 5% to 7% during Q3. This confirms the "rarity premium" principle: when supply for a non-reproducible asset is limited, the price floor for the highest quality material rises disproportionately.

The Weakening Ruby GTI

Paradoxically, despite the price increases in the top bracket and stable price in the smaller size, the overall ruby GTI appears weak. This is a critical nuance for investors:

• Low Volume: The scarcity of the highest-demand material means fewer sales can actually be executed at the investment level.

• Market Depth: The visible market (where volume drives the index) is dominated by smaller size, pinkish shade or heated rubies prevents the ruby GTI from reflecting the true underlying value appreciation of investment-grade (i.e. high-quality) ruby.

Investment Conclusion

For the astute investor, the Q3 data provides a clear signal: the long-term investment thesis for high-quality and certified ruby remains sound and is being validated by rising prices in the large-carat segment.

However, the current weak ruby GTI underscores the difficulty of sourcing these assets. Investors should focus due diligence entirely on provenance, certification, and clarity, recognizing that the price of truly exceptional stones will continue to detach from the broader market index due to their non-existent supply pipeline. The rubies that are difficult to transact are precisely the ones you want to hold.

Q3 2025 GTI Highlights

Natural Rubies

• Myanmar: -39.0% QoQ (prev. +12.8%) | -28.5% YoY (prev. +16.7%)

• Africa & Other Sources: -36.2% QoQ (prev. +5.4%) | -30.0% YoY (prev. +9.6%)

Heated Rubies

• Myanmar: -35.9% QoQ (prev. +14.9%) | -27.5% YoY (prev. +12.0%)

Africa & Other Sources: -29.0 % QoQ (prev+2.7%) | -28.8% YoY (prev. +0.3%)

Broad Market Correction Amid Weak Demand

Q3 2025 Ruby GTI saw a significant reversal from the strong gains of Q2, with ruby GTI declining across all origin-treatment categories. The steepest drops were observed in 1 carat to 3 carats segments, where trading volumes shifted toward lower-value inventory amid cautious retail sentiment and reduced supply in mid-tier channels.

Large-Carat Rubies Show Relative Resilience

Despite the overall downturn of the Q3 2025 ruby GTI, 3 carats to 10 carats natural rubies—especially from Myanmar—declined less sharply (–8% to –9% QoQ vs. –12%+ for smaller sizes). This reflects:

·         Extreme scarcity of eye-clean, certified large natural rubies;

·         Persistent demand from collectors and auction houses, who prioritize rarity over short-term market cycles;

·         Limited new supply from Mogok and other key mining regions, which remain constrained by regulatory and logistical challenges.

Weighted Ruby GTI Dynamics Amplify Structural Shifts

The ruby GTI  is calculated as a volume-weighted average transaction across size and color grades. Although absolute price changes in large rubies (3 carats and above) were modest, their disproportionate weight in high-value transactions helped cushion the overall ruby GTI decline. Conversely, increased trading in 1 carat to 2 carats rubies—where prices softened more—exerted downward pressure on the composite index.

Q3 2025 Market Overview

Commercial Grade Down, While Big Size High-Quality Slightly Up

Q3 2025 the price of commercial grade went down 20% compared to previous quarter this is because of slow economic growth and the rapid growth of gold pricing. While large-size, high-quality rubies slightly went up around 7% because of scarcity and sustained collector interest.

 Q4 2025 Market Outlook

• Large-Carat Unheated High-Quality Segment to Lead Market: As the production of 3+ ct natural rubies remains very rare, but demand is still strong. If in the next quarter supply of high-quality are still very limited, we will see price increase sharply again in Q4.

• Caution in Commercial Quality: Economic uncertainty and inventory overhangs in these quality may keep pressure on commercial-grade rubies through year-end.