Gemports Ruby Transaction Index (GTI) Q4 2025

GEMPORTS Press Release, February 18, 2025: In Q4 2025, the global ruby market entered a phase of stabilization following the correction observed in Q3. Despite continued macroeconomic headwinds and cautious retail sentiment, structural dynamics—particularly scarcity in high-quality natural rubies—remained the dominant force shaping price trajectories. The Gemports Ruby Transaction Index (GTI) for Q4 2025 registered small change quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) across all origin-treatment-size segments, reflecting a market in equilibrium after the volatility of previous quarters. However, this apparent flatness masks significant underlying resilience in large-carat rubies, which maintained strong year-to-date (YTD) and five-year gains.

Ruby Investment Outlook

The investment case for high-quality rubies—defined as natural, unheated stones of 3+ carats with vivid red (“Pigeon Blood”) color, eye-clean clarity, and excellent cut—remains robust. In Q4 2025, the market exhibited classic “hard asset” behavior:

• Supply constraints persisted: Mining output from key regions remained severely limited due to regulatory, logistical, and geopolitical challenges. No meaningful increase in rough supply was observed.

• Demand bifurcation deepened: While commercial-grade rubies faced softness from retail channels, top-tier collectors, auction houses, and private wealth managers continued active acquisition of certified large-carat rubies (3+ ct), especially those with certification.

• Price decoupling intensified: Exceptional rubies increasingly traded off-index, with prices determined by rarity rather than broad market benchmarks. This reinforces their role as non-correlated, tangible assets in diversified portfolios.

Q4 2025 GTI Highlights

All segments recorded a small change QoQ in the GTI, indicating a pause in directional movement after Q3’s declines. However, YTD and long-term trends reveal sustained strength:

Nature Rubies

• Myanmar: +1.5% QoQ (prev. -39.0%) | -27.4% YoY (prev. -28.5%)

• Africa & Other Sources: -2.1% QoQ (prev. -36.2%) | -31.5% YoY (prev. -30.0%)

Heated Rubies

• Myanmar: +1.4% QoQ (prev. -35.9%) | -26.5% YoY (prev. -27.5%)

·         Africa & Other Sources: -1.3% QoQ (prev-29.0 %) | -29.7% YoY (prev. -28.8%)

Q4 2025 Market Overview

Q4 2025 marked a period of consolidation and selective strength:

• Commercial-grade segment stabilized: After a 20% drop in Q3, prices for smaller, heated, or lower-color rubies found support amid reduced inventory liquidation and holiday-season restocking.

• Large-carat premium held firm: Natural rubies ≥3 ct from Myanmar saw no QoQ decline—consistent with Q3’s +5% to +7% price gains—due to near-zero availability and sustained collector interest.

• Volume-weighted index neutrality: The GTI’s flat reading stems from offsetting forces:

  • Downward pressure from higher transaction volumes in sub-3 ct commercial material

  • Upward support from infrequent but high-value trades in 5–10 ct investment-grade stones

• Geopolitical watch: Ongoing instability in well-known many mines continues to constrain supply, reinforcing scarcity-driven pricing power for certified origin stones.

Q1 2026 Market Outlook

Looking ahead to Q1 2026, three key themes will shape the ruby market:

• Large-Carat Unheated Rubies to Lead:

  
  

  With no signs of increased supply from well-known mines, natural rubies ≥3 ct—especially 5–10 ct—are expected to resume upward price momentum. Auction results in early 2026 will likely set new benchmarks.

• Commercial Quality Remains Under Pressure:

  
  

  Economic uncertainty, elevated gold prices, and excess mid-tier inventory may continue to weigh on sub-3 ct and heated rubies through Q1, particularly from African sources.

·         Certification as a Value Gatekeeper:As market polarization intensifies, only stones with reputable lab reports will command premium valuations. Uncertified or ambiguous-origin rubies face liquidity risk.